Moody’s Ratings affirmed Romania’s long-term Baa3 sovereign rating but maintained a negative outlook, flagging major implementation risks in Bucharest’s ambitious fiscal tightening program. Measures rolled out since July 2025 have brightened the fiscal picture, yet sustaining political backing beyond 2026 remains dicey, especially with prime minister rotation slated for 2027 and parliamentary elections in 2028.
Analysts forecast Romania’s fiscal deficit shrinking to 6.3% of GDP by end-2026, from 8.2% in 2025 and a 2024 peak of 9.3%. Even assuming a further dip to 5.7% in 2027, public debt would climb to 62.9% of GDP from 60.5% this year, underscoring the need for sustained efforts.
The rating balances Romania’s solid medium-term growth potential and high wealth levels against rising debt, high deficits and governance gaps like corruption control and fiscal policy effectiveness. Moody’s could shift the outlook to stable if debt burdens align with projections, but only with full, effective rollout of 2025 measures and continued consolidation into 2027 and beyond, albeit at a moderated pace.
